12/07 - WINTER STORM: SRN PLAINS
I also included the Midwest (more towards the Great Lakes) since the shortwave heads in that general direction once it begins developing.
The exact placement of all these features is crucial, and with it being +60HRS out - things are subject to significant changes. I still thought it was interesting though.
Hmmmm
Bring on the snow! I'm gathering a party to hunt down and destroy the primary OUN deflector shield.
Aaron
But I love that UNT is closing already. It reminds me of my first winter in Indiana three years ago. A fair snowfall was forecast for the next day, and I went to the main English Department office to see what the secretaries (who always know more about what's going on than anybody on campus) thought about the chance for cancellation.
Both ladies had worked at IU for more than twenty years. They looked at each other and smiled and one of them said to me, "They haven't cancelled classes at Indiana University since the Blizzard of 1974." And they never did while I was there, even though that first winter was a record-setter, with around 50 inches of snow before it was over.
I glanced at the RUC a minute ago and it seems that the 850 moisture continues to stream north until late tonight, so I guess we'll keep on keeping on. It appeared a short time ago that we're cold enough now for snow exclusively. That's all I saw falling from the last patch of precip.
MWS OUN has OKC getting 8.1 inches for the average snowfall season
Oklahoma City Snowfall Records
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/winterwx/okcpns6.php
Top 10 Oklahoma Snowstorms
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/winterwx/okcpns5.php
Mike
http://mgweather.com
Grand Rapids Michigan Season Total 27.4 inches
4 inches of snow on the ground.
Please cancel all scheduled lynchings. Thank you.
I've seen one inch forecasts end up with over a foot, and 12 inch forecasts end up as a dusting. This happened just a year (maybe it was two) ago in Kansas City, where every met seemed quite confident in a heavy band setting up across the metro one winter evening that would result in over a foot of snow ... some estimates went to 15-17 inches! ... I stayed downtown that night to be closer to work ... only to wake up to see a few skiffs of dust blowing around here and there in the morning.
As with any winter weather, the anticipation is just half the fun, though ... and talking about what might happen is as much fun as it actually happening. Big winter surprises are awesome, though - - -
I think it largely depends on the rate of snowfall. The melting process absorbs energy (similar to how condensation releases energy), so if the ground temp is 36, fallen snow that melts does decrease the surface temperature. In addition, if swow is falling heavily, it will accumulate on top faster than it can melt on the bottom, so you still end up will net accumulation. It does certainly helps that temps near OKC have been cool lately, since it's allowed the topsoil to cool, thereby giving us a better chance that snow that falls will stick (or at least stick appreciably).
Angie
Remember how above Antarctica theres a continuous hole in the ozone layer, that keeps changing its shape, kinda like an ameba but never fills in. Well if global warming is starting to occur and the ice caps are melting, then maybe, just maybe the deflector shields are deflecting incoming IR and UV radiation back into the atm creating a second hole in the ozone which explains everything around here.....hmm increased 850mb temps year round leading to....something called a cap and warmer 850mb level temps in the winter which ive heard but let me go check..yeah,check, it does prevent such ice crystal formation that would lead to a term that meteorologist (scientist that study and attempt to forecast whats known on Earth as weather) call snCENSORED.
hey, it could happen.
Shane im hunting you down............will be making a thread in Map room for Shane Chasing.
btw its 2:30am and I think ive lost it.
I may start another thread for the Great Lakes / Northeast if the models continue (or after better analysis of the 00Z data).
I was wondering what warning would be valid for this type of event.
Considering that we haven't had a real snowstorm in years, they might issue one for all the bad drivers that get out when the slightest amount of snow hits the ground. :wink:
I personally hope we do get some snow down here. We need any moisture we can get right now.
I'm aware of that - but watches are issued when you have a 50% chance or greater of issuing a warning. So somehow they think it is better than even odds of the 1" or less snowfall resulting in some sort of warning, and I was wondering what warning would be valid for this type of event.
Oh well time to adjust...went through a good winter last year in NW Ohio with around 55" of snow for the season and every other storm dumping over 8 inches of snow.
Oh well, some year we'll get a good snow down here and some real wind chills....0 to 10 below...blah. Give me 30 to 50 below. :)
LOL I hear ya David. I grew up near St. Paul, MN, where avg snowfall is about 55" / yr, and the avg high temp in mid-January is 19 degrees. I'm sure there are folks on here who live in even snowier locales... So, it is quite humorous to watch the news coverage about the 'brutal cold', and the OUN winter weather product telling people to "stay inside Wednesday if possible". You'd think we're seeing -30 temps and -50F windchills. Heck, OKC has been colder in the past few years... Feb 2003 saw a day with a high of 15F, so this isn't that bad, especially since we got MAYBE 0.5" of 'snow' here in Norman... It was half pellets, half snow really. I'll take the 20F high with the "extreme" (per TV met) wind chills of -5 to 5F over a cold Minnesota day anytime (cold meaning the high stays <0F).
Oh well... I was going to meander over to Petsmart this afternoon, but it would have taken me 30 minutes to go ~5 miles, not because it was that slick out, but because some folks drive side-by-side at 5mph :roll: Yes, the road may be wet, or snowcovered, but that doesn't mean you have to drive slower than I walk. I didn't see too many vehicles with ABS or traction control (similar to ABS, except for when you're accelerating) either. Just make sure you stay plenty far behind the vehicle in front of yeah, don't make any sudden turns/lane changes, and you're probably okay to drive like you would in heavy rain (~25-30 in a 35mph, etc). If ya wanna drive 2mph on Main Street, that's fine, but don't drive next to someone else who's also driving insanely slow.
Up north by my grandparents, in a heavy lake effect snowbelt in the middle of no where (think >25 miles to the nearest store, and 3 miles to your nearest year-round neighbor) - they only plow major highways (there are no express ways). Even so, between the months of December and late March, the major highways are all two tracks (they don't salt). All other streets are considered seasonal, and if you happen to live on that "seasonal" road, you better have a plow that can handle a couple feet of snow / 250 inches a year.
I never would have thought that DFW would be the place to be for the first Srn Plains winter storms of the season. :roll: Shane - we're coming to hunt you down, you know??
Anyway - I just sat and watched a DFW met talking about their upcoming winter storm today......and sure enough they had a loop on the screen of the return-moisture making its way back north. Dallas is below freezing now and the moisture is arriving as we speak. The only thing I choked at was when their on-screen met. gestured to the white echoes vs. pink or green and said "oh don't worry folks - that's not snow that's falling here - that's just frozen rain"!!!! :shock: Mmmmkay......
Well I guess we'll see what the Dust Bowl II (a/k/a OUN) can pick up out of this moisture-starved system.
Watch it prove me wrong and we get like 10+ inches. I DARE IT TO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PROVE ME WRONG - DUMP ON US!!!!!!!!!!
Grrrrrrrrrrrrr...............LOL.
This thread is silly.........I hope I don't feel the wrath of the mod wand........ :wink:
KR
I just saved a cool radar image from twin lakes showing well the depth of the arctic air. http://www.okweatherwatch.com/depth.png
SRV at .5/1.5/2.4/3.4 degrees has the beam height about 3000 ft where the low level north winds shift to southwest....
Well - I got in at 5.30pm from my very interesting jaunt into Norman. The roads were a mixed bag - some were very dry with pellets just drifting with the wind across the road, and others had mounds of pellets and sleet and snow built up on the sides of the lanes. Still more roads - mainly the smaller roads in downtown Norman and even Main St. further west - were actually quite treacherous - a result I'm sure of the traffic compouding the lying snow and pellets and turning it into ice. While I sat at the bank I saw two people spin out in front of me LOL.
I did have some problems getting away from intersections here and there - and I was everywhere from the west side to the northeast side of Norman. The traction from standing still was difficult occasionally. I almost had a smash when some stupid ass changed lanes right in front of me on Gray St. in an attempt to get to his left turn. He made the left turn - good for him! I almost went into a spin from slamming my brakes on but hey it's allll good right? :roll:
I got back over to the east side about 4.45pm to Wal-Mart - and crossed over on Main to get to the store. 12th Ave was TOTALLY backed up with numerous school buses and traffic - it wasn't moving at all. I still don't know what the deal was - it was really weird. So after I got my groceries I checked to see if 12th was still the same - it was - and headed north to Robinson, then east, then south on 24th to home. Sad. I wish Norman would get it's damn roads straightened out. 24th Ave was pretty good - mostly dry.
The interesting thing will come when we all need to drive to work tomorrow morning. This stuff on the roads will freeze solid tonight and then with the sun coming out tomorrow it may melt a bit and turn into black ice. I'll have to watch myself on the way to the office!
I had fun out on the roads today though. It was nice to see some weather. This Normanite got out of her hibernation today and surveyed the good work done by Aaron Kennedy - N.A.D.S. coordinator extraordinaire. Very nice work!!!
KR
I was also curious to why they have wintry mix when the high is progged to be 18F AND temps at 850/700 should be well below 0.
It is interesting... At first, I thought that freezing drizzle would be the big "mix" threat. Typically, when you have a profile that is 0 to -10C through the cloud layer with a significant dry air intrusion directly above the cloud top / saturation level, freezing drizzle is likely.
In this case, temperatures through the cloud layer are in the -10C to -20C, which seems slightly too cold for a "perfect" freezing drizzle situation, but I still wouldn't rule it out completely.
Also, I'm not liking the 18Z NAM forecast soundings out of OUN, in terms of heavy snow. The saturated layer barely reaches the -15C isotherm, and the majority of the strongest vertical velocities are located at the very top of the saturation layer. Definitely not good for snow flake growth, and I have seen small flake size kill plenty of good setups (mostly over my area, LOL).
We shall see, it's still a ways out.
The plows and salt trucks usually come out
after it starts snowing, It would be a waste of money
to pretreat the streets before a snow in West Michigan.
The various governments,have a budget for what they
will use for salting and plowing the roads.
In southern Kent County, the cities, county, and MDOT
do a good job on the roads, especially the primary roads.
Just to my south, Allegan County, the roads are much worse
often they use a sand/salt mix on the roads. Once again,
the county has less money to work with.
Mike
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/snow1.gif http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/snow2.gif
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/snow3.gif http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/snow4.gif
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mikeperegrine/snow5.gif
Sitting in Panera right now drinking hot chocolate ... ahhhhhh ....
12.5 inches here in Shawnee...one heck of a storm we got. Now it's on to the ugly task of shoveling it and removing it from the cars.
Yes, but indicate "SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH". I guess it's better than a dusting... But hey, you should NEVER doubt the power of the Norman weather deflectors, lest you want to get burned. :lol: This event wouldn't be too bad if we some more of that elusive moisture that's evaded the region the past several months. How many flooding events did Kansas have this past spring and summer again? Like 4?
Yeah, it's sad....we deserve at least 4 inches for the extreme cold we are going to have to endure tomorrow and Thursday. I demand there be a reevaluation of the models!
On a weather note, as you said, moisture has been an issue for a good part of the last 10 months, since February. Were we even to have only decent moisture for this system, we would be talking about 4-6 inches +.
Don't worry, I think we also have a deflector shield here in Amarillo. :(
If all of yall are calling this weeks dusting a "kink" or "loss of power" in the deflector shield then well, like i said, amnesia.
Let me say that this weeks event is right on schedule/par for seasonal/monthly climate for OKC/central Oklahoma.
During the winter in OKC, the average or normal pattern for winter weather events calls for the first event to occur sometime before Xmas and is usually very minor (eg this weeks event). The next winter weather event typically occurs on average around mid to late January and that one is usually noteworthy with around 2 to 4" of frozen precip. Other events can be found scattered throughout late January and all throughout February. I remember my soph yr (winter '03/'04) there were several mini snows scattered throughout the winter, from December to February.
Also remember that OKC averages 8" snow a winter. Now, yes, last years winter was a dud, but the 8" is an average taken over several decades so there are going to be a few aberations every so many winters or so but the few winters I have been here (this is my 4th), ive found that 8" to be about right to slightly generous.
SO, 1" of dust in Norman..... call me when something on order of 2 to 4" of snow or heavy ice is imminent or is occuring here, then Ill listen to your comments about deflector shield issues. :?
and as far as OUN supposedly "over hyping" this event, Ill say this: the Winter Storm Watch was prob a little overkill but OUN along with local OCM's were right to hype the extreme cold aspect of this system. Jeff, I love you dearly but im going to have to disagree with you on this one. Anytime daytime highs are in the teens and wind chills values are hovering right around/at 0 degrees here in central OK, thats deadly, life-threatening, not different than serious severe wx situation. Im all for warning the residences/public of the impending cold. I was at the bus stop this afternoon waiting for the apartment bus to come pick me up at the oval i was in the sheltered bench that you see at bus stops and I had total three layers of clothing on abover then two for my legs both including my thermal/long underwear I was wearing underneath plus heavy jacket and santa hat to cover my ears. So I was not freezing while waiting 20 min for the bus but 6 or 7 other people in that shelter were shivering notably, which was just a microcosm of a lot of people i saw on campus today. Funny how I didnt see any METR majors shivering, maybe b/c they were prepared b/c they saw the forecast and headed warnings.
So I agree with the hype of cold weather. Its not uncommon at all for wintertime highs in the teens in central Oklahoma but almost always only a handful of days in the winter that that happens. I know Jeff mentioned the day in Feb 03. I distinctly remember that day. I remember it was like three days in a row at the very end of month of highs teens and lower 20s. And it was overcast to and somewhat windy. So it does happen.
Well that should satisfy my daily blog requirements for the next week.
EDIT: Karen, please tell me that wasnt DF that made that comment about freezing precip on the map. Hes the one I watch while at home, I like his way of forecasting and "stay calm lets look at this from all angles" type approach
KR
Can we chant "GO NADS"? ::lol:
Yea, and plows came down every single residential street in upstate NY. They only hit the primary and secondary roads in Norman (and Ft. Collins, believe it or not).
greg
That's cause all the yuppies don't want their over-price gas guzzlers to get dirty! They do the same in Denver, too with the mag-chloride!
Angie
Wow, 14 inches?
I've been trying to verify if the NAM or the GFS had the best QPF fields... SFC obs indicated no higher than 0.45 inches of total melted QPF, but we all know that the network doesn't cover 100% of the US. If 12-14 inches did in fact fall, I'd be more confident in the NAM's higher QPF solution for today and tomorrow (i.e. my Great Lakes thread). Not to mention, pretty high radar echoes are now breaking out over a large portion MO - drifing in this direction.
Angie
I think all those chemicals have a rather adverse effect on road surface after an extended period of use. Roads in Michigan are a good example of this! On another note of guessing, think about where all those chemicals eventually end up once they are flushed through the storm drainage. Ft. Collins is a very eco-aware city :wink:
I had a good 4" of snow by the time it was done last evening. Some places SE of the turnpike recorded 10". Not bad for the first actual snowfall of the season.
Tim
Angie
As Robert mentioned, liquid equivalents are forecast to be in the .50-.75 range across parts of the southern plains. As far as the bullseye of precip is concerned, the dprog/dt of the vort max is markedly southward (comparing the 0 and 6 UTC NAM vs. the 12 UTC NAM). This could bring about a fortuitous combination of lifting mechanisms with differential positive vorticity advection juxtaposed with the left exit region of a cyclonically curved jet along with strong warm air advection. If this scenario were to pan out, I believe that parts of Oklahoma and north Texas could receive as much as a foot of snow.
I believe the main caveat to the above scenario will be moisture return. The southern plains have been in a serious drought, so I'm a bit skeptical about whether there will be enough moisture to support heavy snowfall. Regardless, I believe that at least a couple of inches of snow is likely.
Gabe
Highway 92 in central NE after last weeks blizzard. Photo by Crystal Day.
OK needs some of that. Would almost keep folks off the roads.
I-35 was surprisingly good in Johnson County today ... though the city streets (particularly on the Missouri side) are in their typical sorry state. When I used to commute I never ran into problems with road clearing until I got into the city, which is always a mess, seems like.
I guess it really broke last May!
ROFL Greg.....uh - yeah!!! If OUN had had chaseable storms like AMA had this past spring we'd be laughing all the way to the proverbial tornadic bank!!! :lol:
LOL - you guys should be in this house tonight - we have DFW television. It's a hoot to listen to all the news reports - at 5pm they had a special "extended" news program simply to report all the wintry weather - which amounts to some freezing rain and a bit of sleet. They're listing all the school, church and other closures that are in effect for tomorrow - "oh folks - don't go out tomorrow unless it's totally necessary!!!". Sheesh. :roll:
THE DFW ARCTIC BLAST OF 2005!!!!!!!!
KR
I guess it really broke last May!
I'm gathering a party to hunt down and destroy the primary OUN deflector shield.
I'm heading up a small two-man squadron here in Dallas and will be searching for the deflecor as I trek my way back north either Wed or Thu. However, recent intelligence suggests the deflector maybe located along the gulf coast.
I'm awaiting an owl from the Ministry of Meteorology for further details. Godspeed.
Read: They just upped OUN's pops to 80% Almost unheard of LOL. :shock:
KR
Yes, but indicate "SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH". I guess it's better than a dusting... But hey, you should NEVER doubt the power of the Norman weather deflectors, lest you want to get burned. :lol: This event wouldn't be too bad if we some more of that elusive moisture that's evaded the region the past several months. How many flooding events did Kansas have this past spring and summer again? Like 4?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhancedwx/fxc_Developing_Weather.jpg
WFO OUN evidently do, too - as despite the whole area being blanketed in a Winter Storm Watch as of 4.30pm CDT Monday Dec 5th, Norman's Point Forecast (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?MapType=3&site=oun&CiTemplate=1&map.x=206&map.y=132) page remains at a 20% chance of "wintry mix". :lol: I'm wondering how that wording can possibly jive with us being under a Winter Storm Watch. :roll:
Long live the Norman Pit effect - blessed by thy hallowed protective circle keeping us Normanites safe and dry!!!
KR
Aaron's hunting party's hit on the newly-installed deflectors at the Weather Center has had a chain reaction effect and caused the WX-avoidance server at Tinker AFB to overheat temporarily......
Read: They just upped OUN's pops to 80% with a wx descriptions of "Snow" and a low tomorrow night of 7. Almost unheard of LOL. :shock:
KR
Outstanding!!! they must have disabled the interfering deflectors (hopefully long enough) to bring about the unheard of 80% prob and low 7degree temperature. Let it snow let it snow let it snow.
"Instability=Success> As it breaks the cap punch the core, bag a nado and the chase goes on"
........a major victory for N.A.D.S. - Normanites Against Deflector Sheilds!!! :lol: :lol:
KR
Well done N.A.D.S! I fully support your work. Go N.A.D.S. !
I am a bad boy.
RS
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
And of course, since it's been relatively cool the past several days, the ground has actually had time to cool quiet a bit.
I've been curious about something lately ... is there something to this? - You always hear people talking about the ground being too warm to allow snow to stick, but I've really questioned that reasoning. I've seen times when we've gone from near 70 degrees to below freezing in a day's time, and yet the snow still sticks on the ground. Maybe not for the first hour or two, but it really doesn't seem like it takes that long for it to cool off and start stacking up.
Anyway - it's just something I've been wondering about for any of you winter weather experts out there ... Seems like the right storm can pile up snow amounts, warm ground or not - - -
I'm aware of that - but watches are issued when you have a 50% chance or greater of issuing a warning. So somehow they think it is better than even odds of the 1" or less snowfall resulting in some sort of warning, and I was wondering what warning would be valid for this type of event.
I was thwarted in my initial efforts to find out (looking for a regional supplement to NWS directive 10-513 which might list the criteria), but the overnight AFD indicated less of a chance of whatever the warning criteria is:
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A 4 INCH AMOUNT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT THINK THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPS AND BITTER WIND CHILLS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ADVISORY SITUATION ON WEDNESDAY AS AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS.
Chris G.
Walked out to do some video at lunch and there was an accident right in front of me on 435 ... sounds like there are plenty of them right now. Seems like it takes a while to get it together during the first good snow of the season. Very light, 'dry' snowfall here in 12 degree temps. I'd post some photos, but don't want to rub salt in the wound for anyone to the south.
Just finished a bit of model peeping...maybe, just maybe we can maybe get an inch or so out of it here. NAM and GFS are both holding out until 0Z tomorrow before they bring the snow in to central OK, and they're both keeping it in the 0.1" liquid range, so I'm looking for the dry, blowy stuff that you can't even get a snowball out of.
I'm hoping to be wrong and hoping we get nailed. If we need more people on the deflector search team, I'm available 8)
Angie
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/SP/etaSP_0_prec_18.gif
Oh well time to adjust...went through a good winter last year in NW Ohio with around 55" of snow for the season and every other storm dumping over 8 inches of snow.
Oh well, some year we'll get a good snow down here and some real wind chills....0 to 10 below...blah. Give me 30 to 50 below. :)
Not that OUN has the hold on bad snow forecasting - GRR called for 2 to 4" for Lansing last night and we picked up a flurry, they still think a half-foot could fall today and I'm going out on a limb by saying an inch or two ;>
- Rob
Yea, and plows came down every single residential street in upstate NY. They only hit the primary and secondary roads in Norman (and Ft. Collins, believe it or not).
greg
"Ah cannae dae it Cap'n - ah just doon't have the powrrrr!!!!".
LMAO.
Aaron - your efforts will go down in the hallways of N.A.D.S. as one of the pivotal moments in our history when we actually did manage to make it precipitate below 32oF!!!
I am about to make a trip to Norman's Post Office, bank, and Wal-Mart for the afternoon - amidst the sleet/snow/pellets/whatever it is. Wish me luck......LOL........Oklahoma drivers in light snow? I may be some time.......... :wink:
KR
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY CREATE DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE HEAVY WITH THIS STORM...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FIRST WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LIFE-THREATENING COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND
MAKES THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS ONE.
I'm still not sure... The current forecast seems to be for 1-3 inches, with highs in the upper teens (note that the high on 2-24-03 was 15F at OKC), and wind chills bottoming out near -10 in the northwest part of the state.
http://www.weather.gov/om/windchill/images/windchill.gif
-10 is pretty cold, but it doesn't even register on the "frostbite danger" scale. It'll be pretty cold (by southern plains standards I suppose), and there may be a couple of inches of snow, but you'd think the "likelihood of life-threatening combination of cold and wind" would mean like highs near 0 (note that the highs in the northern plains will be between 0 and 10 today) and/or windchills colder than -25. Oh well, I guess it is the first winter event here this year.
I was a little bit skeptical of the snowfall probs looking at the 6z ETA, not only because it was one run, but it's also an off-hour run (with no benefit of soundings). However, the 12z run of the ETA is much more compelling.
As Robert mentioned, liquid equivalents are forecast to be in the .50-.75 range across parts of the southern plains. As far as the bullseye of precip is concerned, the dprog/dt of the vort max is markedly southward (comparing the 0 and 6 UTC NAM vs. the 12 UTC NAM). This could bring about a fortuitous combination of lifting mechanisms with differential positive vorticity advection juxtaposed with the left exit region of a cyclonically curved jet along with strong warm air advection. If this scenario were to pan out, I believe that parts of Oklahoma and north Texas could receive as much as a foot of snow.
I believe the main caveat to the above scenario will be moisture return. The southern plains have been in a serious drought, so I'm a bit skeptical about whether there will be enough moisture to support heavy snowfall. Regardless, I believe that at least a couple of inches of snow is likely.
Gabe
Even if the foot of snow scenario does not pan out at least those of us suffering in north Texas from the drought and extreme stability aloft might get something. I'll take anything at this point.
:lol: Very true... I can deal with -20F temps, but I've never experienced such a long, hot summer before I moved down to OK. MN media mets handle winter weather better; OK mets handle convective/severe weather better (MUCH better)...
:lol: LOL, Rob!!! I was wondering how long it would take :wink: 8)
Angie
I can't resist an easy joke, no matter how bad it is. 2 lumps of coal for my stocking this year.
RS
How come Oklahoma's road/transport agency only treats the roads around here reactively, rather than proactively???
I have never ONCE seen a gritter or sander out BEFORE an event is anticipated. They always wait until the frozen preip. is falling or has fallen, and has caused the roads to become treacherous - and THEN occasionally I will see one of their rusting, delapidated sanding trucks trundle by on Main.
What's the deal??? Don't they stay up with/believe the weather forecasts???
Seems like - when I was growing up in Scotland - I would always see gritters and sanders out like the night before an anticipated winter weather event.
KR
Read: They just upped OUN's pops to 80% with a wx descriptions of "Snow" and a low tomorrow night of 7. Almost unheard of LOL. :shock:
KR
This setup is reminding me of January 2000; big snowstorm for Central Oklahoma. The "Norman Pit" filled up with 9 inches of white stuff on the OU Campus.
I'm hoping that shortwave digs a little further south and it is "SNOW TIME".
Just got a look at the 0z run of the models and it's not looking good for Oklahoma if you like snow; so this setup no longer reminds me of the Jan-2000 Norman Snow Storm.
Simon
Sort of the same deal with heat advisories.... Temps of 90+ would warrent one in Seattle, yet in AZ you won't see them except for the most extreme of days (well above 100).
Aaron
>>Image removed - out of date<<
:roll:
And I think back to Jeff S's post........
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
But hey, you should NEVER doubt the power of the Norman weather deflectors, lest you want to get burned. :lol:
I'm not laughing anymore...........
KR
Interesting...the ETA sure seems to be much heavier on the precip for the 12z run compared to last night's 0z run:
Well in that pic. you posted it's still tough luck for anybody living at the I-35/I-40 intersection!! I don't live in Le Flore-freaking-County Oklahoma!!! :twisted: :roll:
Ahhhahahaha..........don't look at the RUC's precip run this morning, then!
Very dry, very dry.........
This really is horrible.
KR
...Repeat...
The canoe is in the river.
It's been snowing off and on up here this morning (drove to work in a pretty good little snow shower) - hoping to come up with some better totals tonight, at least on the south side of town. Doesn't look like it will amount to much, though. If it's going to be this dang cold, it might as well go ahead and snow as far as I'm concerned.
I have to leave for work in half an hour.......want to know if I should up my commute time from 12 minutes to an hour....... :P
KR
True, but there are some who can do much better than others - just like severe weather. And we've got to put something out there. It's just some entities like to "spice things up" a bit.
The 4"-12" forecast by NWS for my area which I toned down to an inch or so turned out to be a dusting.
Lawton is forecast to receive an inch or less per NWS, yet they are under a Winter Storm Watch. Do they really issue Winter Storm Warnings for an inch or less of snow in Oklahoma?
- Rob
Well....seeing that it's a watch and not a warning, I guess not.
I think they issued a watch yesterday late when the computer models were showing heavy amounts possible ( Sunday night some models or at least a model showed 10"+ for northern Ok,(( comment based on a forecast discussion issued early Monday AM))). But as far as I know, a winter storm warning was never issued.I don't know what criteria they use down here for warnings or watches, but 2" or less of snow in Ok, merely a nuisance for you northern folks, can result in utter chaos for southerners. There is also a concern for some ice across southern areas, including Lawton.
Here is a quote from a winter weather statement issued around 4am from the NWS OUN:
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY CREATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE HEAVY WITH THIS STORM...THE COMBINATION OF THE FIRST WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LIFE-THREATENING COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND MAKES THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ONE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
Rob2
"Instability=Success> Punch the core break a windsheild"
This is not necessarily a good thing, however, since this enhances the Norman Dome, thereby making it more difficult for anything interesting to happen... :evil:
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a331/weathernut07/000_0006.jpg
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a331/weathernut07/000_0002.jpg
[img]
Norman Dome 1 - Winter Storm - 0
Obviously we are still too dry... although I can't locate the sounding from OUN this morning. In addition, main forcing is with the CVA aloft, and S near the front. Doh.
Aaron
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